By Stephen DeAngelis
How resilient are US food supply chains? That question was asked a few years ago by British food journalist Grace Galler.[1] The question is even more pertinent today. When Galler posed that question, she was writing about a study that had just been published entitled “Structural chokepoints determine the resilience of agri-food supply chains in the United States.” As the title of the report suggests, it was an academic study. The study was carried out by researchers from the Civil and Environmental Engineering (CEE) Department at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, including Associate Professor Megan Konar and Deniz Berfin Karakoc, who was then a CEE PhD student. Their study concluded, "The agricultural and food systems of the United States are critical for ensuring the stability of both domestic and global food systems, so it is essential to understand the structural resilience of the country’s agri-food supply chains to threats. … Because the US plays a key role in a highly integrated global food system, the resilience and security of the US food supply chain has implications for global food security.”
The CEE researchers predicted that in the years ahead food chain resilience will become a national security issue. Galler explained, "The researchers went on to define agricultural and food system security and resilience as an increasingly recognized non-traditional defense objective in the national security community and say it is critical to the mission of US national defense agencies." As the CEE researchers pointed out, today's global food supply system is highly integrated, with food products being imported and exported around the world.
The Global Food Value Chain
Most Americans are aware that some of the foods they consume are imported from other countries. If food chain resilience is a national security issue — which I agree it is — then ensuring the global food value chain works efficiently is also a national security issue. To demonstrate Americans' reliance on food from outside the country, food writer Tim Carman created an 8-question quiz to test consumer knowledge about where food comes from.[2] In his introduction to the quiz, Carman wrote, "[Today's] head-spinning, ever-changing landscape has left many Americans wondering how tariffs will affect their ability to purchase not just dolls and pencils, but also the kinds of products that wake us up in the morning, season our foods or satisfy our sweet tooth after a long day on the job." SPOILER: If you want to take the quiz, don't continue reading until you've finished. The eight food items Carman explores are coffee, tea, soybean oil, sugar, palm oil, oranges, processed cocoa beans, and salt.
● Coffee: Most Americans know that the cup of joe they drink in the morning comes from beans produced outside the United States. Many of those beans originate in Brazil. Carman explains that, last year, the U.S. "imported more than $2.1 billion worth of coffee (which includes beans, regular and decaffeinated coffees, and instant coffee) from Brazil."
● Tea: Some consumers might be surprised to learn that the U.S. is "the second-largest importer of tea in the world, behind Pakistan. Most of that tea (70 to 80 percent of it) is consumed as iced tea. And nearly 44 percent of the black tea imported to the U.S. in 2024 came from Argentina.
● Soybean Oil: Carman reports that some of America's most popular salad dressings are made using soybean oil. Even though America is a major producer of soybeans, 115,000 metric tons of soybean oil was exported from Canada to the U.S. during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
● Sugar: The U.S. is also a major producer of sugar, producing about 75 percent of the sugar it consumes annually. The rest of the sugar America consumes comes mostly from Brazil and Mexico.
● Palm Oil: Carman observes, "Palm oil can be found in countless items at the supermarket, but the ingredient has increasingly become a staple in commercial baking, in part because the oil is cheap and can increase the shelf life of a product." Most of the palm oil imported into the U.S. comes from Indonesia.
● Oranges: When people think of oranges and orange juice, they associate it with either Florida or California. They should also think about Brazil (which sent more than 410 million gallons of orange juice to the U.S. last year) and Mexico (which sent an additional 135 million gallons to the U.S.).
● Processed Cocoa Beans: Carman notes, "When you pop a Hershey’s Kiss or a few M&M’s, odds are good the chocolate originates from cocoa beans grown in West Africa, the world’s leading producer." Those beans, however, need to be processed into chocolate. Last year, Canada exported $2.7 billion worth of chocolate to the U.S.
● Salt: Salt was the final ingredient discussed in Carman's quiz. Carman explains, "Salt is a flavor enhancer. Without it, most food would be lifeless." Most of the salt consumed in the U.S. comes from domestic sources. Nevertheless, Carman reports, Mexico sent more than 4 million metric tons of salt to the U.S. "But the numbers are deceiving if you’re talking about the kind of salt you sprinkle on food. All salt from Mexico is either used in the chemical industry or as a deicer for roads."
Carman focused on how tariffs could affect the prices of imported ingredients; however, there are other shocks that could affect the global food value chain as well. Food journalist Bethan Grylls briefly explains how these shocks could affect some of the food we eat.[3] If you are a fish lover, Grylls notes that sustainability concerns and shipping costs could raise the price of fish. Farmed fish are one way to address sustainability, but food reporter Donna Eastlake reports, "The fishing industry is scrambling to contain the spread of a deadly parasite, which has killed millions of farmed fish globally."[4]
Grylls also notes that weather conditions continue to have adverse effects on crops. Analysts from John Galt observe, "Climate change is imposing immense pressure on food supply chains worldwide, and the challenge is here to stay. Unpredictable weather patterns, droughts, floods, and heatwaves are causing significant disruptions to food production and distribution networks. The repercussions extend beyond immediate disruptions, with long-term changes in crop yields anticipated to trigger migrations in food-insecure regions."[5]
Journalist Augustus Bambridge-Sutton reports, "By the year 2100, half of the best land for key cash crops, including wheat, coffee, beans, cassava, and plantain, may be unsuitable. While maize and rice might have more hope in the short term, even their suitable land could eventually begin to decline."[6]
Concluding Thoughts
It's time for people to realize that the resilience of the global food value chain is a national security issue. It's just not one the military can do much about. All other stakeholders, including those in the food industry, government, and consuming public, do have a role to play. For food manufacturers, making better decisions is paramount. Analysts at John Galt explain, "In a world where supply chain disruptions can have far-reaching consequences, making informed decisions is paramount. Advanced technologies like digital twins and what-if scenario analysis empower supply chain planners to assess the impact of different decisions before implementing them." To help manufacturers deal with today's challenging environment, Enterra Solutions® created the Enterra Dynamic Enterprise Resiliency System™ (EDERS™). EDERS delivers predictive intelligence and enterprise resilience for clients by helping business leaders rapidly explore a multitude of options and scenarios. The question really shouldn't be: How resilient is America's food supply chain? The better question is: How resilient is the global food value chain?
Footnotes
[1] Grace Galler, "How resilient are US food supply chains?" New Food Magazine, 24 July 2023.
[2] Tim Carman, "Do you know who exports these foods to the U.S.? Test your knowledge." The Washington Post, 3 June 2025.
[3] Bethan Grylls, "5 foods affected by supply shocks," Food Manufacture, 19 February 2024.
[4] Donna Eastlake, "Deadly parasite threatens fishing industry," Food Navigator Europe, 7 May 2025.
[5] Staff, "The Power of Tech to Fortify Food Supply Chains Amid Climate Change," John Galt Blog, 18 October 2023.
[6] Augustus Bambridge-Sutton, "Land for growing coffee, wheat and beans could be halved by 2100," Food Navigator Europe, 11 June 2025.
